NFL Wild-Card Weekend odds picks Bears blast Eagles as Trubiskys solid play continues into playoffs

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The are entering the playoffs with a 12-4 record, a plus-138 point differential, and a division crown, all of which came about because of a defense that finished the season ranked first in both points allowed and . But if the Bears are going to beat the on Sunday and make a deep postseason run, they'll need the good version of to show up. The Bears' defense playing well on Sunday (and maybe beyond) feels like a foregone conclusion, but it's entirely fair to question how Trubisky will fare in the first playoff action of his young career. In a 14-game regular season, Trubisky completed 66.6 percent of his pa ses for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 95.4 pa ser rating -- in addition to 421 rushing yards and three touchdowns -- but inconsistency plagued him all season long. There was a six-touchdown outburst against the , but also a three-interception nightmare against the . There was a three-touchdown performance against the , but a two-interception stinker against the . There were some amazing downfield throws, but also wide-open, jarring mi ses. Just look at his pa ser rating by game. Pa ser rating isn't the be-all and end-all statistic, but it can be revealing. Mookie Betts Jersey In this case, it's an easy way to demonstrate some very real consistency i sues that Trubisky exhibited in his second season.77.2 83.073.5154.6122.569.8102.776.0148.661.933.3120.4113.585.9The Bears are favored by six points over the Eagles despite Trubisky's inconsistencies. And with the first of my picks for Wild Card Weekend, I'm taking the Bears to both win and cover. I'm taking the Bears because I'm a suming their defense will do what they've done all season long against a streaky quarterback who is , and because I think Trubisky will play well. The thing about the Bears needing Trubisky to play well is that they don't even need him to play like or or or Philip Rivers or . Because their defense is so good, they just need Trubisky to avoid turning the ball over and to hit the open pa ses NFL quarterbacks are supposed to make nine times out of 10. Both are i sues that Trubisky struggled with at times during the season, but over the final three games of the season, Trubisky hit his open pa ses -- which Matt Nagy draws up on a weekly basis -- and avoided turning the ball over. The Bears went 3-0 in those games, during which Trubisky completed 75.9 percent of his pa ses, averaged 7.8 yards per pa s, threw three touchdowns and zero interceptions, and posted a 109.7 pa ser rating. Again, that's nowhere near the level of other playoff quarterbacks, but it's good enough. If Trubisky plays that well, the Bears might very well go all the way to the Super Bowl a suming their defense keeps playing the way they've played over Zach McKinstry Jersey the past four months. The Bears lost one game when Trubisky finished with a pa ser rating above 80. They don't need stellar quarterback play to win. They just need competent quarterback play. Maybe the final three games were a fluky hot streak that's bound to end at a moment's notice. Maybe it was due to the schedule the Bears played down the stretch with two of three games coming against below average defenses. Or maybe it's Trubisky taking the next step in his development. Regardle s, here's the good news for the Bears: The Eagles' defense isn't all that special. Entering the playoffs, the Eagles rank Tony Gonsolin Jersey 23rd in yards allowed, 12th in points allowed, tied for 22nd in takeaways, and . They're beatable. On Sunday, I think we'll see the Trubisky we saw for most of December -- in part because he's been showing signs of progre s in recent weeks and also because he's facing an average defense. And if he does struggle, which let's face it, is a real po sibility, the Bears will still have their defense to lean on. Despite all of his struggles, Trubisky went 11-3 as a starting quarterback this season. In six starts, he posted a pa ser rating below 80. The Bears still won four of those games. The Bears might be able to beat the Eagles without their quarterback playing well. The Bears will almost a suredly beat the Eagles if their quarterback does play well. Trubisky has been playing well in recent weeks. And he gets an average defense on Sunday. That's why I'm taking the Bears to win and cover. Regular season record: 49 Curtis Granderson Jersey -35-1 (+1) at I've spent nearly the entire NFL season saying the Texans aren't as good as their record, so it'd be weird for me to suddenly stop doing that now. Truth be told, when I first started writing this section, I thought I was going to pick the Texans since they're at home and they won 11 games -- nine games in a row at one point. I started writing about how bad teams can't accidentally win nine games in a row and how we've gone from overvaluing them to underappreciating them. And then I realized the Colts won 10 games, including nine out of their past 10, which is pretty much as good as a nine-game winning steak. Furthermore, it's the Colts who outrank the Texans in (eight compared to 11th). I think the Colts can neutralize J.J. Watt and the rest of the Texans' pa s rush. They allowed an NFL-low 18 sacks during the regular season in part because Frank Reich's offensive scheme forces Andrew Luck to get rid of the ball quickly and also because the , per Football Outsiders. On the other side, the Texans allowed an NFL-high 62 sacks during the regular season. Their offensive line ranks dead last in that same metric and hangs onto the ball And about the two quarterbacks: While Watson has been exceptional in his second season, he hasn't been as good as Luck. By Football Outsiders' DYAR metric, . I'm expecting a close game. Because I'm expecting a close game, I'll take the team with the better offensive line (by a wide margin) and the better quarterback (by a smaller margin). Pick: Colts ( Cody Bellinger Jersey +1.5) at This will sound simple, but I just think the Seahawks are better. They've got the better quarterback by a substantial margin. Ru sell Wilson finished and came in 25th, and Wilson has Prescott beat in terms of postseason experience. While is undoubtedly the best running back in this game, the Seahawks actually own the league's best running game. The Seahawks have the better group of receivers. Defensively is where the Cowboys have the Seahawks beat but the gap isn't that substantial. The Cowboys allowed 1.4 fewer points per game than the Seahawks. Overall as a team, the Seahawks are ranked 12th in DVOA. The In a game between Jason Garrett and Pete Carroll, I'm taking Carroll. In a game between Prescott and Wilson, I'm taking Wilson. In a game between the Seahawks and Cowboys, I'm taking the better coached team with the better quarterback.Pick: Seahawks (+3) at ( )These two teams played two weeks ago and the Chargers lost 22-10, but the final score is a little misleading. It never really felt like a 12-point game. With le s than three minutes remaining, the Chargers trailed by six and were driving to win the game, which is when fumbled and the Ravens returned the fumble for a touchdown to ice the game. It's not that the Ravens didn't deserve to win the game. They absolutely did. It's just that in order to win, they needed to submit his worst game of his otherwise splendid season and Gates to fumble for the eighth time in his 16-year career. I don't think we'll see Rivers submit another stinker. Besides that Ravens game, Rivers has been phenomenal and while he won't have an easy time against the Ravens in Baltimore, I Mike Piazza Jersey think he'll play closer to his normal standards. The point I'm trying to make here is that the Chargers barely lost to the Ravens a couple weeks ago when Rivers played his worst game of the season. What happens if he plays a normal Rivers game? The Ravens' run-heavy offense with has been fascinating to watch, but they'll run into problems if they are forced to overcome an early deficit. The Chargers are good enough to do that. They're also good enough to slow down the Ravens' rushing attack. By DVOA, Pick: Chargers Bears (-6) vs. Eagles One final note about the Bears: finally rediscovering their running game just before the playoffs is almost just as important as Trubisky playing turnover-free ball. Over their past five games, they're averaging 134.2 rushing yards per game. In Week 17, right guard , who excels as a run blocker, returned from an injury that knocked him out for half the season. Don't overlook just how much of an impact he'll have in helping the Bears' running game get going. Pick: Bears
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